Standard Chartered now expects stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030 — two years later than its original projection — after the market plateaued at roughly $309 billion this year, according to a report shared with Cointelegraph.

The revised timeline does not reflect fading usage. The bank found that stablecoin transaction activity continues to grow even as overall market value stalls, indicating that existing stablecoins are circulating more frequently rather than new supply driving expansion.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, said stablecoin usage continues to broaden despite slower supply growth, with existing coins changing hands more often as use cases diversify.

How does Standard Chartered segment the stablecoin market?

Kendrick identified four distinct markets, each with different competitive dynamics:

• Emerging-market savings, dominated by Tether's USDt (USDT)
• Developed-market payments, led by Circle's USDC (USDC)
• Crypto trading, where USDC and Ethena's USDe hold strong positions
• AI agent transactions, a much smaller market where USDC also leads

The bank expects the fiercest competition in developed-market payments, where challengers including USDG, M^0 and multibank stablecoin networks are building alternatives to existing payment infrastructure.

The decisive variable, according to Kendrick, is economics rather than technology: how issuers and payment networks divide the yield generated by stablecoin reserves could ultimately determine which competitors gain market share.

What does the US regulatory picture change?

The forecast revision lands amid regulatory and accounting developments in the United States that could reshape how businesses deploy stablecoins.

Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules governing stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements and consumer protections. Not every measure expands protection. A Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) proposal would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance, clarifying the limits of federal safeguards.

The Treasury Department has also advanced implementation. In August, it proposed rules restricting stablecoin issuance in the United States to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027. That date now functions as the effective start of a formal US licensing regime — roughly 16 months of lead time for issuers without authorization to secure it.

Accounting treatment may shift as well. In August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets US accounting standards, proposed an update affecting how companies report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets.

Blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposed changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without adding accounting complications — a practical consideration for corporate treasury teams weighing stablecoin rails against existing settlement systems.

What does this change for issuers and payment networks?

For practitioners, the Standard Chartered analysis reframes the competitive question. If transaction growth continues while supply stalls, the battleground shifts from issuance scale to velocity capture — who earns fees and reserve yield as coins circulate faster through payments, trading and machine-to-machine settlement.

The four-market segmentation also matters for positioning. An issuer dominant in emerging-market savings, as Tether is, faces different economics than one leading AI-agent transactions, where volumes are small but potentially compounding as automated payments scale.

Issuers and payment networks now face a compressed preparation window: the Treasury's licensing regime arrives in January 2027, and the FASB proposal could move balance-sheet treatment well before then.

By Nathan Brooks