A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 U.S. adults found that most Americans oppose betting on election outcomes, with opposition cutting across party lines and landing amid an escalating regulatory fight over the prediction market industry.

Some 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results, according to the survey, conducted Sept. 30–Oct. 5. The industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, lets users bet on U.S. elections, government policy moves and sporting events.

Even sports betting drew a plurality of opponents: 43% of respondents opposed wagering on professional sports through prediction markets, while 29% supported it.

Why does the poll matter now?

The numbers arrive as the industry's legal standing is increasingly contested. A series of lawsuits involving state and federal agencies is testing who has authority to regulate these markets.

President Donald Trump's administration is pursuing federal regulation of the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). States are fighting that approach, and many observers expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court.

On Oct. 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 U.S. states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief arguing that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had produced a "national turf war" that could not be resolved without an answer from the Supreme Court.

What's at stake for Polymarket and Kalshi?

The operators have built their businesses on the premise that election and event contracts fall under federal derivatives rules rather than state gambling laws. The state coalition's amicus brief pushes the opposite reading, and a Supreme Court referral would put that jurisdictional question to a definitive test.

The poll adds a political dimension. If roughly two-thirds of voters in both major parties reject election betting outright, lawmakers and regulators face public-opinion headwinds when they defend a federal framework that permits it.

Related industry moves continue: CNBC reported that Blockchain.com is pursuing CFTC approval to offer prediction markets, signaling that more operators see federal registration — not state licensing — as the operative path.

The practical consequence is a tightening timeline. A Supreme Court review, if it comes, would settle whether prediction markets operate under a single federal regime or 50 separate state ones — an outcome that would reshape the industry's compliance footprint and expansion plans.